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The Army Chief’s Potential Rival

The first striking thing about the leaked document is that it came from the Office of the National Security Adviser and addressed directly to the Chief of Army Staff, Maj Gen Waidi Shaibu.

by Shuaib Shuaib
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Chief of Army Staff, Maj,Gen. Waidi Shaibu.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the Lagos State governor had appointed DSP Kayode Egbetokun his Chief Security Officer, a role the police officer would serve in for about six years before moving on to other assignments.

Tinubu and Egbetokun’s careers would eventually go in different paths after the former’s tenure as governor ended in 2007.

He held on to the ambition of one day becoming president of Nigeria.

That ambition didn’t materialise until 2023 when he was elected President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Call it fate, politics or even a stroke of luck, he became president just when Egbetokun had reached the end of his career and was one year away from retirement.

Tinubu did not only make him the Inspector General of Police; he changed the law to make sure Egbetokun could remain IGP beyond the 60 years that is the retirement age.

From all indications, there is no one in the Army, Navy or Air Force with that kind of history with the president.

Unlike Egbetokun, whom he knew personally, the president had to ask for recommendations before appointing Service Chiefs when he first came to power.

Yet, in the 30 months of Bola Tinubu’s presidency, it has been nothing short of turbulent for the Nigerian Armed Forces.

And that’s no exaggeration.

From very early on, the military has been fighting for relevance and a place in his All Progressives Congress government.

If it wasn’t for Tinubu’s self-confessed lifelong desire to be president, an average observer would be forgiven for believing there are forces within the presidency determined to weaken the state by targeting the military.

The defence forces are not only facing steep budget cuts, they have been relegated to the background.

The rank and file of the Armed Forces have barely recovered form the reports, allegations and the subsequent arrest and detention of a dozen or so officers for allegedly plotting to topple the Tinubu government.

And to spread the suspicion to the entire military, the presidency sacked the Service Chiefs.

Whatever the truth is about the coup plot and the role or failure of the Service Chiefs in the scheming, the pretext for the removal came from one of their own institutions in the defence establishment.

Contending with internal sabotage has been a game officers in the Armed Forces have always played.

But when it comes to discipline, loyalty and respect for seniority; those have been the bedrock of the Nigerian Army and has ensured it remains one of the few functioning institutions in the country.

In addition to its many other failings, that too now seems under threat.

The Nigerian Army is a very secretive institutions and is to some extent, unforgiving for breaches in trust and disobedience to given orders.

That is why it is very rare for leaks of documents containing presidential orders to come from it.

Yet, that is exactly what has just happened with the reports in several publications that the president has approved the promotion of his Aide de Camp, Colonel Nurudeen Yusuf to the rank of Brigadier General just one year after he was promoted to the rank of Colonel.

Forget the fact that under the rules, he isn’t due for another promotion for another three or four years.

There are wider implications for this breach of rules and laid down procedures for all the officers that are his course mates, his seniors, the entire Armed Forces and even the state itself.

The first striking thing about the leaked document is that it came from the Office of the National Security Adviser and addressed directly to the Chief of Army Staff, Maj Gen Waidi Shaibu.

It completely bypassed the newly appointed Minister of Defence, Lt Gen Christopher Musa, who only two months ago was the Chief of Defence Staff and had been removed from office only after the reports of a coup plot broke in the media.

His appointment as Defence Minister wasn’t just seen as an attempt to address the security challenges facing the country, which was brought to the fore by threats from President Donald Trump of the United States of America to militarily intervene in the killing of Christians in Nigeria.

With age on his side, the tenure of Shaibu as Chief of Army Staff could last as long as Tinubu’s presidency, which could mean it is another president that could name the next COAS

Musa’s appointment was also seen as a way for Tinubu to make right the wrong of sacking him as Chief of Defence Staff.

But with the presidency going over his head to approve the promotion of Col Yusuf, it appears Musa’s appointment is only ceremonial.

He will have no real powers to determine the shape or operating doctrine of the Armed Forces.

A second observation is that the recommendation for the promotion doesn’t appear to have originated from Army Headquarters.

That would mean the Defence Minister is not the only one that was sidestepped, so was the Chief of Army Staff.

In essence, his authority is being challenged by the president’s ADC.

A similar scenario played out during Muhammadu Buhari’s presidency when his Chief Security Officer, Bashir Abubakar, a deputy director of the SSS contested the authority of the DG, Yusuf Bichi.

It didn’t turn out well for Abubakar.

With age on his side, the tenure of Shaibu as Chief of Army Staff could last as long as Tinubu’s presidency, which could mean it is another president that could name the next COAS.

That is unless the presidency chooses to cut short, Shaibu’s stay in office.

That is why the substance of the leaked letter and the career progression of Col. Yusuf is likely to provoke as much thought in the Army Chief as it will, all the officers between courses 42 and 52 of the Nigeria Defence Academy.

That is enough to unsettle an entire generation of the Nigerian Army.

And why wouldn’t Yusuf want to one day be named Chief of Army Staff?

He is, after all one of the closest people to the president.

Besides, Goodluck Jonathan retired dozens of senior officers, those between NDA courses 19 and 25 just to make Kenneth Minimah Chief of Army Staff.

Only Jonathan didn’t have to bend the rules or weaken the institution to put his man at the helm of the Nigerian Army.

He didn’t put the state at risk.

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