Tunde Chris Odediran
Michael Jackson is arguably the most iconic dancer of all time.
One of his notable songs, Rock with You, is about the power of music and dancing, which can be so electrifying as to cause the dancer to mesh into a rhythm that’s hard to fight.
The people of Osun, my home state, are rocking with their own Jackson, at best a clumsy dance enthusiast, whose rhythm created election aftershocks that is still reverberating across Nigeria and its diaspora.
Ademola Jackson Adeleke, a.k.a. the dancing senator, delivered an upset by beating the incumbent, Governor Adegboyega Oyetola, to emerge as the governor-elect of Osun State.
With his nephew and Afrobeat star, Davido, by his side in victory, the state was prepared for a perfect celebration – as Adeleke and the People’ Democratic Party (PDP) danced into the day, the people rocked into the night.
It was a massive victory and the joyous rollicking fun infected more than half of the state. Osun State had delivered a strong message about democracy.
As the results trickled in, I was baffled that Adeleke maintained a healthy and steady lead after what initially seemed an inconsequential surge.
I asked my people at home what was going on because the results ran against my expectations.
A quick unscientific research revealed deep-seated disapproval for the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state.
Those that I had assumed would vote by ideology, reason and political insight had not.
Three successive APC administrations had left the people in a pauperized and deplorable condition. The people’s pockets dictated how they voted.
Unpaid salaries, reduced paychecks, delayed retirement benefits and disregarded compensation to home owners whose properties were demolished for road construction had created deep resentment for the APC.
There existed a suspicion that Osun State’s funds were being used to sponsor APC’s national projects and that outsiders benefitted more from the state’s resources.
They also pointed to the evaporation of job opportunities, financial hardships resulting from inflation and ineffective government policies to ameliorate hardships as some of the grievances behind voting Governor Oyetola out of office.
As shocking as the results were, it was clear this election was not so much a result of rigging or vote buying as it was a reflection of the will of the people.
The verdict of the voters in Osun State was clear: it was time to terminate a 12-year romance with the APC.
The people voted for change.
Regardless of the quality of leadership that the PDP may deliver, democracy worked in Osun State!
It worked in so far as democracy is the government of the people by the people.
That victory reflects the unpalatable side of democracy, recently experienced in Brazil, USA, UK, Ukraine and other countries where populist leaders emerged out of a growing discontent with social and economic conditions.
It is the same kind of response that caused leaders like Boris Johnson and Donald Trump to emerge in their countries, regrettably.
Beneficial democracy goes beyond voting out of frustration. It requires voting with purpose and reason. It demands politicians presenting solutions that address challenges and the electorate making informed decisions among alternatives.
While the people may rock with Jackson Adeleke and dance the night away, all the governor-elect did to win was tender empty promises.
Hardly was there any dissection of his manifestos, if he had any. He sang and the people just danced.
A political party is ideally the design and manufacturing plant for solutions to intricate societal riddles.
The party provides leadership and vision, not a dancing act. In democratic governance, the rhythm is hardly ever fun. It is serious business and only the wonks thrive. Dancing is not required.
But democracy is never easy. Thinkers argue that democracy can even be detrimental to development, when the majority behaves in an unstable, uninformed and irrational manner.
What my people threw away in their anger over the performance of the Oyetola administration is good judgement.
They sold reality for hope, ignoring the root cause of their sad reality.
Compared to others in its region, Osun State is a poor state. It is one of the unviable concussions of the past military regimes. The purely agrarian economy produces little of value to sustain itself.
But what makes Osun so poor is that it spends nearly all of its revenue on servicing debt and liabilities, while having enormous bills to pay for civil servants inherited from the old Oyo State
A majority of citizens are civil servants and teachers. There are very few manufacturing or service outfits that can create good paying jobs or generate capital for the state.
Internally generated revenue (IGR) is too thin to supplement federal allocation.
Osun State has been so poor the people did not even realize how poor they were. They count billions without counting their needs.
Whereas Lagos has a GDP of $34,000, Osun State’s stands at $7,300.
But what makes Osun so poor is that it spends nearly all of its revenue on servicing debt and liabilities, while having enormous bills to pay for civil servants inherited from the old Oyo State.
Since its creation in 1992, Osun has been running on deficit budgeting. All of its nine past and present chief executives relentlessly borrowed to finance projects and pay salaries.
My state can be regarded as an Alamajiri of states since it relies solely on allocations from Abuja to survive. Its tourism, agriculture, manufacturing, mining and educational industries are not wealth creators.
There was a time when the pot in Abuja was sufficient to feed the people of Osun.
But after the previous APC administration of Rauf Aregbesola, a current minister, took over, that buffer was smashed.
Without thinking about the future of the state, he went on a borrowing spree, financing all kinds of flashy projects that the state could not afford, whatever justifications he may have had.
From building school facilities that the state could not maintain to an ₦8 billion program to supply secondary school students with Chinese-made computer tablets, the state repeatedly made egregiously poor economic decisions.
As crude oil prices crashed towards the end of the Goodluck Jonathan administration, the Aregbesola magic waned instantly.
Workers’ salaries were slashed, debt piled and the state gave away much of its federal allocation to service avoidable debt.
By the time Aregbesola left office, for every ₦100 received by the state government as revenue allocation from the federation account, N91 was deducted to service debt, according to data compiled by BudgIT, a non-governmental body that tracks government spending.
The rate of deduction remains the highest ever for any of the 36 states as a percentage of federal allocation.
The state gradually moved towards insolvency, which, you might argue, Oyetola arrested through more prudent management of state funds. He refused to take new loans and even increased IGR from ₦14 billion to ₦19 billion in a Covid-19 economy while restoring normal salaries.
Oyetola may have been fatally injured by his failure to spend money that the state did not have. It is not the first time. Former governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola rode a similar wave against his predecessor, Bisi Akande, who was a miser.
In the governorship debate held before the election, there were more articulate and better sounding candidates than Adeleke, even when it was obvious Oyetola had been muffled by a lack of performance
There was simply no break for Oyetola. Osun had no money for development.
As he could not release money to stir the state’s economy, his profile sank. As in days of Babylonia, it was Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin for him – the days of his kingdom had been numbered and it had to be brought to an end.
But if Oyetola was not responsible for creating the problem, his party takes the blame for promising much, borrowing too much and delivering too little for 12 years.
It is the APC that the people trusted and punished.
It is all good in a democracy to punish parties that fail to perform. What is not acceptable is to fail to pick a better party or candidate. That is where the electorate erred in Osun State.
Jackson Adeleke may be a good dancer, but he is an unproven leader.
There is nothing in his track record that gives a reasonable person the confidence that he can turn the fortunes of the state around.
The problems that Oyetola tackled unsuccessfully, Adeleke will face as well.
At best, Adeleke must learn on the job and learn really quickly. He must energize the state’s economy and produce internal wealth.
With a sweet tongue, he promised the electorate loads of goodies like Santa. The governor-elect must now deliver. If he doesn’t deliver, the punishment meted to his predecessor awaits him.
In the governorship debate held before the election, there were more articulate and better sounding candidates than Adeleke, even when it was obvious Oyetola had been muffled by a lack of performance.
The people of Osun did not give the other candidates a fighting chance.
They voted parties, instead of candidates and competence.
That is exactly the problem with our democracy. We are tightly locked in to the failing major parties, rather than taking a good look at good candidates from the less-known parties.
The people of Osun State have made their bed. They must now lie on it.
I hope they enjoy the next four years and find endless time to rock with Jackson.
