It’s official.
Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf has parted ways with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, his longtime mentor, boss and political godfather.
This comes after 30 years of mentorship in the Kwankwaso school of politics.
Kano now wears a new look with no one certain where the road leads.
Leading to the split, Kwankwaso has been accused of being domineering.
What nobody ever says is Governor Yusuf coming across as weak and maybe politically timid.
In so many ways, the public rupture between the two came out of nowhere.
The closest analogy to what is happening in Kano politics would be what transpired in 2011 between the late Olusola Saraki, godfather of Kwara politics and his son, Bukola, who rebelled, defied his father and subsequently deposed him as patron of the political dynasty.
The only difference between the two cases is that the complete breakdown in the relations between Bukola Saraki and his father came after Bukola had spent eight years as governor.
In Kano, Kwankwaso had no intention of waiting eight years and had reportedly perfected plans to replace Governor Yusuf by denying him the NNPP ticket.
Kwankwaso’s advisers probably expected Yusuf to accept his fate and go down without a fight, fitting the image they have of him.
As bitter a pill this is for Kwankwaso to swallow, it would be a disservice for someone he mentored for 30 years not to be able to stand on his own and govern Kano without being tele-guided.
But as events have now shown, he learnt from the best.
The former governor has now suggested tagging January 23 – the day Yusuf abandoned the NNPP platform – as a day of betrayal.
But what he has termed political treachery; for aides, appointees and supporters of Yusuf is nothing more than an act of self-preservation and political survival.
While there were whispers of tensions simmering between Yusuf and Kwankwaso, with a cabinet reshuffle just over a year ago that gave the governor more control over his commissioners, no one could have imagined that their relationship had hit rock bottom.
Even before the cabinet reshuffle late in 2024, it was well known in political circles that many of the commissioners in the cabinet had little regard for the governor and felt their allegiance was to Kwankwaso.
They acted accordingly. As it’s now apparent, the cabinet reshuffle only made things worse.
Now it is Kwankwaso fighting for political survival, while the governor comes across as exhibiting decisiveness and strength.
He didn’t just dump the NNPP and the Kwankwasiyya movement, he left with a majority of members in the state assembly and all of the 44 local government chairmen.
This is significant in two ways.
By aligning themselves with the governor instead of their sponsor, the chairmen have not only hollowed out the NNPP and the Kwankwasiyya movement, they have stripped the former governor bare
First, the defection of the lawmakers in the state assembly ensures that governance doesn’t suffer leading to a constitutional paralysis and political gridlock, while the governor can push through his agenda in the assembly.
This is to the benefit of the people of the state. The second point is on the defection of the local government chairmen and what it means politically.
In Kano, no politician can succeed statewide without the support from local government chairmen or most influential politician at the local level.
Kwankwaso’s supporters might point out that he made all the local government chairmen in Kano today by handpicking them and handing over the NNPP ticket.
But many were already some of the strongest politicians in their respective councils.
By aligning themselves with the governor instead of their sponsor, the chairmen have not only hollowed out the NNPP and the Kwankwasiyya movement, they have stripped the former governor bare.
What does this mean for him?
The most likely scenario to play out is his forced retirement from politics either at the national or state level.
He definitely cannot run for president or Vice President while battling to retake control of Kano government house.
Divided attention will mean failure on both fronts.
Suggestions that he did it in 2023 would misrepresent the reality of his objective and strategy.
In 2023, his heart and soul was invested in reclaiming the governorship seat, not contesting the presidential election.
There was never a chance of him winning the presidential election under the NNPP and it showed in the results.
Governor Yusuf’s defection has made that fact even more glaring.
He now has to choose between staying in NNPP as a local champion fighting his protégé for relevance or joining a bigger platform like PDP or ADC and compete at the national level.
He can’t do both.
There is a reason NNPP succeeded in defeating the APC governorship candidate, Nasiru Gawuna in 2023.
Historically, Kano has always voted against the ruling party at the centre.
That has never changed.
The exception was in 1999 and in 2019 when the ruling APC won by the whiskers in an election many felt the results were altered.
But there is another reason for the 2023 win.
Kwankwaso had the courage to spend, while those in charge of the presidential and governorship campaigns in Kano sat on the money.
Yes, there are politicians who have won elections into legislative bodies and governorship offices without spending money.
Those are exceptions, not the rule.
In general, it is politicians that are hungry for power, not those hungry for money that succeed over long periods and at the highest level.
Kwankwaso’s declaration that he is not for sale suggests that he has been offered money by the presidency to defect to the APC
That difference is what separates Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi.
Tinubu has the hunger of both money and power. He is willing to spend his way to power knowing the results would favour him in the end.
Atiku has shown time and again, that he is willing to spend his last dime in his quest to be president.
Peter Obi on the other hand, has shown no willingness to part with his hard earned money for a political objective that is not certain.
But where does all this leave Abba Yusuf?
Kwankwaso’s declaration that he is not for sale suggests that he has been offered money by the presidency to defect to the APC.
It could also mean that money has exchanged hands between President Tinubu and Governor Yusuf.
And that has indeed happened and if that money didn’t trickle down to every ward, local government in the state as was the case in 2023, then another miraculous comeback can be expected from the red cap movement.
There is something else that needs to be highlighted. In spite of Kwankwaso’s rantings and the occasional attacks, there is a level of sophistication to how the political fallout between the mentor and his protégé unfolded.
It’s in contrast with what is happening in Rivers State where both Governor Siminalayi Fubara and FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike have shown a willingness to burn down the entire state to have their way.
From day one, Fubara rebelled against his political sponsor.
When he met resistance from the State House of Assembly members, he brazenly demolished the assembly complex.
Wike has shown the same tendency.
When he couldn’t get his way in the PDP, he decided to bring the whole house down.
Should anything like what is taking place in Rivers happen in Kano, the state won’t only become the 2027 election hotspot, half the security agencies would have to be deployed to Kano and surrounding states.